Should You Pay Over Retail for Luxury Watches?

This is Watch Your Style. Today we’re gonna be going over a topic that
seems to be very common in this day and age. Being the way that the current watch market
is going and is: It’s it worth paying over retail? [opening music] So you can tell nowadays with the new watches
that are coming out by Rolex and some of the discontinued models from the other brands,
the prices are all over the place. Now there’s some watches that tend to just
always be in that standard range with depreciation and stuff like that, but there are some watches
that the prices are absurd at the moment. And the watches that are really falling into
that category are: either a) discontinued models or b) low supply, high demand models. And those are the two categories that I like
that split this conversation into because it’s two total different spectrums. For example, I like to start with the discontinued
models. Now, most watches when they come out and they’re
brand new releases, sometimes they’re not really that hot at the moment and they kind
of just sell pretty normal. People buy them retail at the ADs. They can pick them up in the gray market for
below retail, stuff of that nature. Preowned ones are flowing. So they kind of start off kind of high. They kind of do a dip down. By the way, this thing I do it with my hand
here, I like to call it �the curve� because this happens with these watches. There’s a curve that occurs. They kind of come out at first and they’re
selling at full retail, little bit under. They kind of dip down a bit as the 3, 4, 5
years go by, but then all of the sudden they get discontinued and that’s when the curve
starts to go up. So it’s like, released, they start dipping
down a little bit, 5, 6, 7, 10 years then it’s discontinued, �BAM!�…back up. That’s when you have no other choice but to
pay over retail. Those are the watches that are the biggest
problem because they’re not gonna make them anymore. The chances are the prices are not gonna go
down. So that’s something we have to look at. It’s discontinued versus low supply, high
demand watches. So some of the examples for these discontinued
watches that I like to use is, one of the best ones of all, is the Patek 5711. The watch has a retail of $24,700. I mean, I remember that that watch I used
to sell them for around $28,000. They were already…again, BAM, came out,
did that, but they were already a little bit over retail. Nowadays, they’re going for $50,000….$48k,
$45k, $50k. That’s a watch, for example, that you either
want it or you don’t. You’re not gonna ever get one again at retail. Yes, of course, there’s this miracle guy,
is those that friend of the friend that somehow knows this AD and is the only one left in
the world. Whatever! For the general market, if you want a 5711
stainless steel, you’re gonna be paying over retail, so this is one of those certain areas
where, fine, it’s OK. If you want it, it’s OK to pay over retail,
because chances are it’s not gonna dip down below retail. Another example is the Patek 5980 in steel. Retail was $51,000. I sold those things maybe five years ago for
$38,000. Nowadays you can expect to pay $60k+, over
retail. I don’t see them. I don’t see them coming out any cheaper. I don’t see them going down in prices. That’s a watch that’s gonna stay there. My prediction is gonna stay there, keep climbing
or just hold there. So if you want one, you gotta pay over retail. So the other side of the spectrum would be
the low supply, high demand watches. Now, this is for those new releases, introducing
the ceramic bezel Daytona. You know, people are paying $5,000 over retail. I’ve had somebody tell me that the waiting
list is like 5 years. I mean, �Five years?!� Five years from
now I don’t even know if I want the same damn watch. Five years from now, who knows what the heck
happens in five years?! But some people are actually in that line
waiting to get that watch. Five years from now, they might be available
below retail because we don’t know where that one is gonna go. So, for the low supply, high demand watches
is a little more volatile and which really brings the biggest question in all of this
is, �How bad do you really want this watch?� That’s something you gotta ask yourself, because
for the ceramic bezel, stainless steel Daytonas, the retail is like fourteen thousand and change
or what not, in that area, whatever. But they’re going for $19-$20,000, so how
bad do you really want it? Do you wanna wait for the prices to go down? Do you want them to start shipping more merchandise? Or if you really want it now, you gotta pay
up. So, there’s another scenario where, is it
worth paying over retail? Well, it depends how bad do you really want
it. If you really want it now and you don’t wanna
wait, life is short. Sometimes you just gotta do it while you can. What the hell? Why not, and just pay over retail? You know? It is what it is. One good example of a watch that for me tends
to be kind of like a hybrid between these two topics, between the discontinued and the
low supply, high demand is the Hulk. Rolex Hulk has a retail of $9,050. I remember I couldn’t sell them for $7,500
five years ago. Now, Oh my God! They’re going for $11,500. I wouldn’t pay that for them, but they’re
over retail because there’s like this craze for them, you see? I don’t know man. That’s one of those models that for me that
I’m not sure yet if it’s discontinued. If it’s not. It doesn’t fall into the category yet. I wouldn’t put it just yet in the category
of the 5711 steel or the 5980. Another good example is the Batman. Still available at your local AD. Has a retail of $8,950 or something like that. And what happens is, there isn’t any. Waiting list. Two years. You gotta 100 people ahead of you in the AD. So, the good thing about the Batman is they’re
going in the pre-owned market, in the gray market, a little bit over. It’s not so exaggerated the prices over retail. So you go over that main question again, How
bad do you really want it? So when you’re thinking about these watches
that you’re obsessed about and they happen to be going over retail, you have to think
about what I’m talking about, that curve. You see, the discontinued watches have a different
curve. They kind of start off at retail, start creeping
down and then they shoot up, whereas in my opinion, the low supply, high demand watches
start right at the gate high, but from there I can only see them going down. So you gotta ask yourself that question I
told you already a couple of times, �How bad do you really want it?� If you really want it, life is short, shop
well and buy it. So feel free to comment below how you feel
if it’s worth paying over retail for watches. And if you liked this video, please like and
share. Also, subscribe to our channel. My name is Eric, Watch Your Style! [ending music]

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100 thoughts on “Should You Pay Over Retail for Luxury Watches?

  1. Eric interesting analisis. From my point of view the retail prices are already isane. Paying over retail creates a bubble in the market. I see prices going down in five years. Those high demand unsatisfied area strategy from Rolex. Meanwhile we can enjoy our vintages and homages. 😀

  2. can you do a video on what's the correct way to wear a watch not to tight or loose and pro's and cons

  3. Nice vid. My grail is a 321 Speedy, so I guess the price would be at higher than retail back in the old days !

  4. I’d prefer to die!Last year I sold my 5711a 31000€ to a guy,I am still laughing 😂😂😂 this watch isn’t worth 31000€.
    And believe me or not but 2 friends had their 5711 at the retail price in geneva in a few weeks.
    One because his stepfather bought a 250000€ AP Laptime and the condition of the deal was AP to call PP the get a 5711 as soon as possible for my friend.
    The other one had a good contact at PP and Got his one too a few weeks after ordering it.
    If you have contacts ,you ll get it fast and at retail price.
    Sorry for my bad english.

  5. Good vid, Eric. I paid premium for my Batman because at 65 years old I didn't want to wait to find out if it was going to be discontinued or the price would fall. I attempted to purchase it a year ago for retail at $8950 but it was reserved and I didn't see another in the state of Maryland for a year. After sitting on the wait list for several months I jumped on a previously owned model at a premium. Buy once, cry once! I'm keeping it, not flipping, I'm good. Keep up the good work.

  6. Yo Eric, rate JayZ’s watch collection, believe it’ll get like 50/10 it’s the most perfected collection EVER!

  7. Watches are funny 3 years ago I bought the 16710 for my 23rd and paid £3000 and sold my 14060 and people laughed at me saying could not afford a sub date? Now it’s a diff story … personally I won’t pay over list

  8. Of course it’s all about what you really want, but from a value perspective, 5711 doesn’t make any sense today. You could get a Rose Gold 15202 for less money. Love the 5711, but I can’t see myself buying it anymore. Doesn’t matter how much money i make, it lost the appeal to me. I know this is an emotional hobby and we should not look at it from a straight financial perspective, but at least for me, i like to know that i’m getting some real value for what im buying. But if it is your grail, like Eric said, life is short, go for it!

  9. Just picked up a blue face 5980 for retail! I’m in love with it. Luckily I have a good relationship with the AD. Not just 5711 and 5980 but ALL Nautilus models are so tough to find these days.

  10. Great Vid Sir! Never pay more than retail for a steel watch! No way. Patience is a virtue, especially when it comes to cash a finite resource.

  11. Pay over retail?…Hell NO! There are a ton of cool watches out there. Just pick one that you like below retail.

  12. good topic, I think if you are a showoff guy or ppl just wanna catch the heat on their first watches, just pay for the prime. But as a collector, in my perspective, I just consider watch as a investment, and wait for the deal in a time of period, nothing should be hurry in life. just keep looking and waiting for a deal coming to me, patience matters!

  13. The people who pay over retail have more money than sense. It's better to support an AD (and pay retail) than to feed the flippers who only make the demand issues worse.

  14. I am not a fan of Patek Philippe, they are not worth the hype and inflated price. All the Côte de Genève and black polishing doesn't make them more accurate. You cannot even hack the balance wheel to set the seconds. The Nautilus is quite nice if a bit fragile looking and thin. I like Rolex and AP, which you didn't include. At SIHH the CEO François-Henry Bennahmias is cutting out ADs for their own Boutiques. They look like Rolex and both are the Caterpillars of the watch world. I wouldn't pay over retail for any watch, certainly not the Faginesque world of vintage.

  15. I want the 43mm deep sea dweller red lettering so bad, but ikd if it will be discontinued, or will it remain low supply high demand

  16. Always i like your videos Eric, but actually you may examine low prices watch too which we can buy it f.e. the prices between $300-1000

  17. You are a complete moron to pay 20k for a Daytona that is identicle to a 116520 but they updated a bezzle lol! You are paying for a bezzle

  18. The short answer is: NO.
    Listen, major dealers have watches. They aren’t limited. Watch companies want to sell as many numbers as they can. They are in business to SELL PRODUCT. You pay some dude $5k over retail? You’re foolish- Rolex doesn’t get that money.
    Look to major markets and big AD’s always have the watch you’re looking for. At retail.

  19. How about the Rolex 126600? How long are they gonna produce a 50 year anniversary edition AND it’s low supply and 3-5k over msrp.

  20. Hulk prices are fucking ridiculous. Also, I know they are totally different watches but for the money I’d definitely get a brand new Royal Oak rather than overpay for a Daytona

  21. So what you're saying is, it's possible the price for a pre owned Batman could dip in the 6-7K price range at some point?

  22. The market has gone bonkers. Saw a pepsi 16710 with 3186 going for $25k. Ceramic Daytonas are still being listed for $20k. Even 116610LNs are approaching $9k. Ridiculous. Two years ago you could get a clean 14060 for under $5k. Now they're nearly $7k. GMTs in particular have skyrocketed.

  23. I just paid to you guys 16k for my discontinued 116520 white face. Couldn’t be happier. If is the Watch you want, and if you can afford it, go for it.

  24. The way I see it is only if the present value of a watch now is equivalent to the future value once you're able to obtain one in what could very likely be anywhere from 3-5 years. IMO to the point where the current premium isn't more than $5k. In cases where watches are fetching $10-15k or more over retail it's just a waste of money.

  25. Well the thing about that curve is while it's correct, one doesn't know when a particular watch will be discontinued. As soon as info goes out that a particular watch will be discontinued, the price will almost instantaneously go up? How does that info help anyone lol.

  26. Walked in to my AD to special order the blue dial sky-dweller and they had a hulk in the case. Grabbed the hulk and got the sky-dweller 63 days later. Both 5% off.

  27. Eric, much respect! But hey man the 5711 is not discontinued. It’s high demand low supply. They even upped the price recently.

  28. It's crazy that last year I could buy a green sub from my ad for 8500 cash out the door brand new!. Now there are crazy fucking people here in LA asking up to 12,000 for a USED hulk SMH.. for anyone out there thinking about picking one up. Just wait out the storm for Rolex to start shipping out watches next month and I guarantee they will start selling at around 7500-8500 again

  29. Eric, what's your opinion on Cartier men's wristwatches? I don't think I've heard you talk about them. A lot of the other watch channels give them a pass because of horological history, but I appreciate your "watch game" perspective.

  30. Hi Eric great show,what do u think about the Patek 5270G-19 discontinued,great looking watch,for me nicer than the new 5270P ,appreciate your feedback

  31. No. The watch world is big and most people have more than one watch on their list. If a piece a is only available for a price above retail you can go for another grail, which is not.

  32. Hi Eric…what is your opinion regarding GIRARD PERREGAUX 1966 Equation of Time Automatic ? I want to buy one and i do not know if is it's worth it. Thanks.

  33. It’s a pity in Asia, only Rolex are well sort after. Brands like PP & AP are consider alien and very difficult to sell or trade. I’m in love with luxury watch, but at the same time I’m really concern of the value in any case if I do need some urgent fast cash. That’s the reason I kept a distance from PP & AP. They are fantastic pieces but it’s just too bad.

  34. Asset inflation in high end watches is the same as the everything bubble. Once credit becomes too expensive or hard to get , the watch market will implode. So its not smart buying over list , we are heading towards a major credit crunch , prices will decline by 30-50% .

  35. eric you made some very good points, although i think you did forget something. if you are buying a watch that you know you will be keeping forever/ passing down to children etc, it wouldn’t make that much of a difference if it is above retail

  36. I paid for my ceramic daytona on february 27th and was told by my AD that the wtch should be here before august. I was very specific about the waiting time and the response was that they keep holding em (rolex) but if you wait a little you end up getting one. hopefully I get it by that time

  37. When was this video made? I've seen all these Rolex for lower prices and all available for under 12k.

  38. It’s too personal and individual’s choice.. at times you might just get pulled into paying the crazy price.. control and wait is the answer..

  39. I think if the waiting list 5 years I will pay 4000 to 7000 up cuz 5 years = 60 month if I pay 7000 = 167 a month
    I need my watch now I like it now tomorrow I don't now what gone happen

  40. sorry but there is no curve across the board – it's totally dependent on brand and price-bracket & numbers produced – u cannot generalize

  41. do you think 12500 US is too much for the new Sea Dweller 50th ? i called the AD and this is the price they gave me and they said there is only one available. I love that watch but i want to ask your opinion on the price

  42. Hi eric what dou you think will happen in a couple of years with the price of the sea dweller 43 mm?

  43. Please make a video about the patek 5327J! It such an classic looking gentlemen watch, i think it is a fine piece of art. Would be diffrent but so nice to see a non sports watch

  44. Good video Eric, and interesting topic! At the end it all depends what you value more and what you have more of… Do you have more money than time, more time than money? Does the price tag for an "overpriced watch" mean anything to you? If you need to borrow for it, it may not be the ideal situation unless your time is even more limited than your financial ressources… But if money is not an issue, than paying more would make sense, why not? That is why "over retail price item" can sell. Meanwhile, let's face it, any luxury item is "overpriced"already, that's why it's luxury in the first place. Therefore having the luxury to get it when you want or before others has a price tag too, pay more, get it now… It's all part of the same "luxury" concept in the end! ( Money is only as good as spent, otherwise it is just a number on a piece of paper)

  45. you are really doing good videos but here you missed out the leverage of inflation completly. every ten years your money is worth more or less half if you do accurate Math.

  46. I think you should not have to over pay for Rolex legit diamond watches but legit I'm talking no fake shit if I had to throw my opinion out there if I was buying a diamond Rollie that was legit even with low grade diamonds but still real I would say I would pay any where from $600 to $900 maximum 1250 that's tops cuz that's like three or four paychecks saved up for one watch that's legit and worth buying on some no fake shit so there u have it guys that's my opinion 👌👌🙏☝let me know what you guys think on my opinion guys comment back!

  47. Sure you pay over retail. Of course for the Batman, but also for vintage watches. Great video Eric.

  48. Thank god I bought the BLNR awhile ago when Eric said it was a good watch to buy from an AD. I had $2,500 in store credit with Mayors at the time. It’s a safe queen…

  49. Nice vid. I currently find myself lubed up and ready to take a dive right into that slope you illustrate without any certainty as to wear I shall land.

    Currently shopping for a royal oak 41 2 tone. Retails 25xxx however AD’s don’t have them and on the “grey market” they are asking in the mid 30’s and even they can’t locate one is it isn’t pre owned.

    I’m curious to your thoughts on this purchase in progress.. thanks, 🙂

  50. I just collect for fun. $ isn't really an issue anymore thank god. I don't really have patience for appreciation but it would definitely benefit few perhaps.

  51. Hey Eric love you channel. Great info for the beginners and the experienced. But for and guys like me who don’t have a lot of money and want to be in the watch game what is he to do rob a bank? (Not serious) What would you suggest the watch I should get that would go with maybe every outfit. I currently own a Breitling Super Avenger 48 mill. stainless steel and I rock it with everything. I want a Rolex I can only spend 13,500 maybe. Please help. Ps. Dig the cars and clothing keep it coming.

  52. I would have like to hear more about the steel AP that’s “ supposedly “ discontinued as of recent. They are over retail as well.

  53. Eric, I really enjoy these videos. Done with a lot of knowledge and good taste. My question — I have one space left in my watch collection (I already have 8 watches – 3 Rolexs, 1 Richard Lange, 2 APROOs, and 2 Panerais) I can buy a beautiful mint condition Bregeut type XXII for the lower retail price of a ceramic Daytona. Or should I finish my watch collection with a Daytona and call it a day? Your advice will be greatly appreciated.

  54. Eric i want to get a watch for investment where can i look for the discontinued watches for rolex or when are they going to be discontinued?

  55. If you have the bread and you really want the watch, now… ForkUp. Point taken. Its just like anything else. Supply rules the demand but demand rules the value.

  56. Hola Eric i wont talk too much pero ; 5711 now 70k to 90k solid . batman 15k to 20k , and so is the hulk …salud

  57. Of course the grey market dealers are loving that watches are going over retail but won't tell you when recession hits even hard to find watches will go down drastically

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